Tell us something we didn't already know....

BANGKOK, April 23 (Reuters) - Thailand's army chief said on Thursday some army bullets were used in the assassination attempt on Sondhi Limthongkul, the founder of the "yellow shirt" protest movement who had criticised the military.

Army chief Anupong Paochinda said the M-16 rounds used in last Friday's attack on Sondhi, whose movement has been at the heart of Thailand's political crisis, may have been stolen.

"These bullets are for training purposes by the First Army Region. This is clearly a leak," Anupong said, confirming that at least three spent M-16 cartridges were traced to the regional army that covers Bangkok and some central provinces.

He ordered an investigation and said any soldiers involved would be punished severely.

Anupong has previously denied speculation by some of Sondhi's colleagues that military personnel may have been involved in the assassination attempt. But the audacious attack while Bangkok is under emergency rule reinforced the belief "that only uniformed men with the protection of higher ups had the capacity to pull off such a high profile murder attempt", as the Bangkok Post's military affairs correspondent, Wassana Nanuam, wrote.

Police found 84 spent M-16, AK-47 and pistol cartridges and an unexploded M-79 grenade from the dawn attack by at least five gunmen, which followed a week of violent street protests by a rival group that supports former premier Thaksin Shinawatra.

Police have made no arrests, and Sondhi has been silent while recovering from a head wound that was not life-threatening. His driver was seriously wounded.

Kasit: Thaksin behind attack on Sondhi

The Bangkok Post says Foreign Minister Kasit Piromya has accused outlawed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra of being involved in the failed attack on People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) leader Sondhi Limthongkul last Friday.

"Thaksin failed with the populist movement and now I think he has resorted to some sort of assassination attempt," Mr Kasit said in a speech to the Asia Society in New York.

He did not provide any evidence to back his claim, but made it clear he believed that he and four other cabinet ministers were also possible targets for assassination.

These statements run counter to those of the PAD's own leadership, who have said that they believe that "men in uniform" were behind the attacks. It also contradicts blogs by Sondhi's son, who is the head of his television station, who is also writing about a growing military movement against both the Red Shirts and the Yellow Shirts.

Bangkok Pundit quotes from Jittanart Limthongkul's blog:

He said there is a new form of war by a group who want to create a new government consisting of the police and army in neutral gear (ie who won't take the "necessary action"), one Minister who has great desire, and politician(s) behind the blue shirts. Jittinart said this "new power group" is putting up military barrier on the outer ring to prevent Thaksin Shinawatr from returning while blocking Premier Abhisit with an inner ring. Sondhi's son said the incident at the Interior Ministry last week when Premier Abhisit Vejjajiva came under attack had been planned "to kill the prime minister -- and put the blame on the red-shirts."

Could there be a new alliance between Thaksin and Sondhi brewing?

Asia Whoppers

The political turmoil in Thailand has produced incredible events and even more incredible charges, culminating with the latest stories from Asia Times. Last week, the paper offered this story:

"BANGKOK - While red-shirted protesters manhandled a government security official they had handcuffed and temporarily taken hostage, former premier Thaksin Shinawatra placed a call from exile to his trusted United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) leader, Jakrapob Penkair, who reported back on events from an air-conditioned bus at the back of the UDD's main rally site. The two shared a laugh over the UDD's siege of the Ministry of Interior earlier that Sunday and briefly discussed international media strategies."

This is very detailed information that only the people in the rooms on each end of the phone line -- only a few at most -- could know. All of those people would be high-ranking supporters of Thaksin; it's very hard to imagine that they would be cozying up to anyone from Asia Times, which is owned by Thaksin's arch-enemy -- Sondhi Limthongkul. Perhaps he got this information from the office potted plants? Those lines were succeeded by this surprising announcement just three days later:

Nobody claimed responsibility for the attack, though initial speculation pointed to wayward elements of the United Front For Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) anti-government protest group.

PAD officials and supporters have, from the beginning, hinted that police and military leaders were involved in the attack, citing the tight security imposed under the state of emergency and the fact that all the traffic cameras at that intersection had malfunctioned only hours before the attack. Perhaps the Times should talk to the same people The Nation contacted:

PAD spokesman Suriyasai Katasila says PAD leaders suspect certain political cliques conspired to shoot down Sondhi. The shooting with assault rifles bore the hallmarks of work by men in uniform, as ordinary gunmen would not risk carrying out the job during emergency rule. He called for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva to overhaul the personnel in charge of security affairs.

PAD co-leader Pibhop Dhongchai said he found it hard to believe the military had no knowledge about the attack on Sondhi.

PAD co-leader Somkiat Pongpaiboon....suggested the removal of the national police chief, military commanders, the director of the Armed Forces Security Centre and the director-general of the National Intelligence Agency.

Rumors have been spreading across Thai blogs for months that some of Sondhi's allies were unhappy and were planning to move against him. The Times, apparently, hasn't heard any of this.

Neither, apparently, were they aware that Sondhi has long been calling for the heads of the police and the Army to be replaced; their stories on last Friday's assasination attempt mention these calls as developments that are new.

But the Times did have this new information:

Asia Times Online broke the news on Tuesday that UDD operatives had for the past two years funneled arms through Cambodia to Thaksin-aligned supporters in the country's northeastern provinces, where his grassroots support runs strongest.

If the UDD is smuggling in weapons, they're certainly keeping them well-hidden; I've seen no reliable pictures of any Red Shirt protesters carrying guns. Perhaps they're saving them for a rainy day?

The Asia Times may be a reliable source of information on some countries, but when I want to know about Thailand, I think I'll give it a pass.

(Here's another analysis of Asia Times' work: http://thailandjumpedtheshark.blogspot.com/2009/04/shawn-crispin-on-propaganda-wars.html)

PAD founder shot

PAD founder Sonthi Limthongkul is reportedly in the hospital after being shot early Friday morning. At first, the Bangkok Post said Sonthi suffered only minor injuries, but now they quote a doctor as saying that Sonthi was hit in the head with shrapnel which penetrated his skull but not his brain, that he's out of danger, but that he'll remain in intensive care for about a week. His bodyguard and driver were also injured, but the Post says their injuries were not as serious. The attack happened when the car pulled into a gasoline station to refuel. As the vehicle sat next to the pump, two gunmen on motorcycles drove up, shot out the tires and then sprayed the vehicle with bullets.

The PAD, of course, is the group behind the Yellow Shirt protesters, who were responsible for forcing Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra from office. They continued to demonstrate for two years, until Abhisit Vejjajiwa was picked to head up a new government composed of oppostion parties earlier this year.

For months now, rumors have swirled that Sonthi's life was in danger, not from Thaksin's supporters, but rather from Sonthi's PAD allies. Sonthi and Thaksin were once business partners and both have tremendous popular support. It wasn't until Sonthi threw his support behind the anti-Thaksin movement that opponents were able to generate the huge rallies that resulted in Thaksin's overthrow. There have been whispers that the PAD's military and royalist supporters were worried that Sonthi had become too powerful and that they would decide to eliminate him before he could become a threat. It will be interesting to see whether the police are able to locate any suspects, and if so, which faction the suspects are connected to.

Either way, the shooting could plunge the city into another round of violence, although the shooting had little effect on the value of the Thai currency or Thai stocks on Thursday.

In the early 1990's, I worked for Sonthi at his Manager Monthly magazine. He was a very nice boss then, and probably still is now. I wish him a speedy recovery.

The 60-second guide to Thai Politics

(Former allies Sonthi Limthongkul and Thaksin Shinawatra)

Now that Thailand has been plunged into another round of turmoil, I decided to finish the series I started months ago, on the people leading the country's political crisis. Some of the information has been posted on earlier blogs, and in other sources, but I thought it would be good to put it all into one concise place.

First, The Players:
1) the Monarchy, led by the King;
2) the Blue Bloods or ruling elite, currently represented by Prem;
3) former General, Bangkok Governor and populist hero Chamlong Srimuang;
4) the rising business/professional class, currently led by two people; media mogul Sonthi Limthongkul;
5) and deposed Prime Minister and populist hero Thaksin Shinawatra.

Second, the Protesters:
1) the Yellow Shirts, who support the King and the Blue Bloods;
2) the Red Shirts, who support Thaksin;
3) the Navy Shirts, who are disguised military, army & political leaders

Third, the Power Structure:
For a couple hundred years, the Monarchy and the Blue Bloods have ruled Thailand, with occasional revolts by the people. One such revolt forced King Prajadhipok to agree to a new constitution that set up a parliamentary government and reduced the power of the Monarchy.

Since then, there have been periodic upheavals to demand changes in the constitution and the government that would give people more power. This drive has intensified in recent decades as rising educational levels and international investment created a thriving middle class of business/professional people.

Corruption is also a sore point with many Thais. When I decided to get a driver's license in Bangkok, I simply strolled over the the proper government department, filled out forms, paid the listed fees, went through the line and emerged with a driver's license. When I told Thai friends and in-laws, they were absolutely incredulous -- in order for them to do this, they would have to have a connection in the department, or pay a substantial bribe.

Now, the Situation:
2) Prem was appointed Prime Minister during a period of political turmoil and Thais were so grateful that he was able to restore order that they re-elected him to several subsequent terms. He officially retired from politics, but remained active behind the scenes and now is the top advisor to the King, as the head of the Privy Council.

3) Chamlong is a former general and a long-time campaigner against corruption who has now become an ascetic and devout Buddhist. His mentor was --- Prem. Chamlong founded the PDP political party but eventually lost popular support because of his rigid religious views. People realized that, while it's good to have an honest politician, it's even better to have one who can get things done, and a politician who refuses to compromise will find that difficult. Chamlong largely retired from politics for many years. Until 2006, when Thaksin's enemies came calling.

4) Sonthi is the son of poor Chinese immigrants who was schooled in the U.S. before returning to go into business in Thailand. Sonthi's ambition was to become the Asian Rupert Murdoch and he went a long way towards reaching that goal, building an empire of communications (in partnership with Thaksin), newspapers, magazines & television. Along the way he snagged some prestigious contracts for the Asian Vanity Fair and other major international publications.

Unfortunately, it was all built with borrowed money. All was well until the economy collapsed and he was bankrupted. He managed to rise again with a smaller media empire that was also financed with borrowed money. That was no problem because his friend, Viroj, was the head of Krung Thai Bank. Each year, Sonthi paid the interest, signed some papers, and the loans were rolled over. Through it all, he remained a staunch supporter of his friend, Thaksin.
Until 2004, when scandal struck.

5) Thaksin is the son of a wealthy northern Thai family who was schooled in the U.S. before returning to go into business in Thailand (sound familiar?), at one point partnering with Sonthi Limthongkul, before deciding to join the PDP party, where his mentor was ---- Chamlong.

Thaksin became Prime Minister after the collapse of the Thai economy, a problem which most Thais blamed on the IMF. One of the first things Thaksin did was to thumb his nose at the international group and proceed to rebuild the Thai economy, both actions which won him tremendous national support, but alienated the international power structure.

One of the next things Thaksin did was to crackdown on the drug problem. He sent military and police units into the Golden Triangle with the philosophy, "kill 'em all and let God sort 'em out." This policy cured the drug problem and was also very popular with the people, but it drew condemnation from many international groups who oppose extrajudicial justice.

In order to prevent any domestic criticism from coalescing, Thaksin began to crackdown on any media that reported on problems. When journalist Shawn Crispin wrote a critical article in the Far Eastern Economic Review, his visa was revoked. Many Thai media who criticized the government, its ministries and supporters were slapped with lawsuits or arrest warrants. This lost Thaksin even more support internationally.

So when Thaksin began to reform the country's political institutions, he had few international friends to counter the Blue Bloods, who opposed the reforms. Then, in 2004, things got worse.

Krung Thai Bank was forced to admit that it had $1 billion worth of bad loans, an amount that shocked the small country and it was revealed that more than 4-percent of it had gone to Sonthi, in loans approved by the bank's CEO, Viroj. Viroj was forced to resign and the new CEO refused to grant Sonthi any more credit; Sonthi appealed to his friend Thaksin for help, to no avail. The gravy train had come to an end; Sonthi was now fighting for his financial and professional life.

In order to save his empire, he began to assemble a strange group of bedfellows. Sonthi, a media mogul who had opposed political interference by the country's military, who had fought for sweetheart treatment from Thaksin, an immigrant who was a political and social outsider, joined with the anti-corruption hero Chamlong, other activists, some military leaders, and the Blue Bloods, to form the People's Alliance for Democracy, the PAD. Their sole goal -- to overthrow the democratically elected prime minister of the country.

Next: The Protesters