Prologue to a larger battle?

"I think it's true." That's what one Thai told me after reading The Economist report accusing King Bhumipol, Queen Sirikit and high-level royal advisors of decades-long meddling in politics, despite constitutional restrictions. That was a stunning admission, and its the most vivid sign yet that the 9th king in the Chakri dynasty may be its last. The Economist article reported on this, attributing it to a Thai prophesy that could sway the country's superstitious people.

This sounds disturbingly like the travel books I when I first went to Thailand, written by Westerners, which spoke condescendingly of the "happy, childlike people," totally ignoring the fact that Thailand has had an independent and cohesive empire since the 13th century, successfully defending their territory against the Khmer, the Burmese, the Malay, China, and, most importantly, Western powers. They didn't do this by being "happy" and "childlike," but rather by being savvy, and brutal when necessary.

The fact is that Thais simply have different ways of expressing opinions and coming to conclusions, ways that are just as valid as those used in Europe and the US. Yesterday, I should have pointed out that Thais don't criticize the royal family, but neither do they criticize anyone openly. That would be insulting. What they do is agree, and then find an excuse not to do something they disagree with.

Since I never heard this prophesy when I was in Thailand, I wouldn't be surprised if this is simply a safe way of suggesting that it may be time to end the monarchy. The fact that is it now being repeated widely means that many people agree, an amazing shift in Thai society, and a sign that the current troubles have unleashed a much larger problem than anyone had realized. Many powerful people outside the royal family have a vested interest in continuing the monarchy; they're not likely to give up their power & perks without a fight that will make the current battle look like a minor skirmish. International diplomats need to step in now to mediate, or Thailand could end up looking like another Congo.

(Photo on King Bhumipol courtesy of Images History' Header photo courtesy of Sailing: real to reel)