What's going on in Thailand?

Poor Thailand! It has so much going for it -- natural beauty, a parliamentary system of government, infrastructure, and a homogeneous and tolerant culture. It should be the economic engine of Southeast Asia; instead, it seems to have a coup every other week. What's wrong with these people? That's the attitude most Westerners seem to have. But the fact is, the ongoing unrest is in large part the result of a power struggle between the establishment and the reformers, led by two former business partners who had a falling out. It's an Asian version of the epic battle between Achilles and Agamemnon, and one that seems destined to drag on as long as its mythical Greek predecessor.

The first man is well-known -- former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Handsome, personable, and born into one of the richest families in northern Thailand, Thaksin was destined to succeed. He earned a PhD in Criminal Justice from a small university in Texas and then rose to the rank of Lt. Colonel in the Thai Police Department before retiring to go into business. Many of his early ventures had problems, but in 1986, he launched AIS, which grew into a communications giant, operating mobile phones, communications satellites and a television station.

Along with his success in business, Thaksin became involved in politics. After serving as Deputy Prime Minister in two governments that were quickly turned out of office, he turned populist and helped found the Thai Rak Thai party, which promised universal access to health care, a debt moratorium for farmers and a huge influx of money into local villages, among other things. The programs worked -- the country's GDP nearly doubled, it repaid its IMF loans ahead of schedule, the budget was balanced, and local villages were prosperous.

While his government was accused by human rights advocates of more than 2,000 extrajudicial killings in a crackdown on drug activity, most Thais supported the effort. Enemies accused him of corruption, but Transparency International's corruption perception index put Thailand in 60th place in 2000, the year before Thaksin took office, and in 59th place in 2005, the last full year Thaksin was in control.

The real problem with Thaksin is that his populist policies, appointment of political outsiders to important positions, and reorganization of the government left the country's powerful elite feeling marginalized. This created a powerful group of enemies in search of a leader. In 2005, they found him, and the movement began that eventually brought down a series of governments.

And it all began with a personnel change at a state-owned bank.......

--- tomorrow, The Man Behind the PAD